The 93rd Oscar Predictions

The 93rd Oscars to be held on April 25th

With all my film reviews being posted on my new Letterboxd page, this blog has been thirsty for updates. Due to the ongoing pandemic, there were NO in-person film screenings and Q&As, to write articles to post here at ToZ. So, I'm just going to post my Oscar predictions because today, Tuesday, was the final day for AMPAS voting. Like years past, I pride myself in seeing all the performances so I believe I have a legitimate voice to share in the prognosticating of the awards. Unlike the professionals who get paid really well to live and breathe Oscar talk, and are friendly with voters and other awards journalists, I like that my perspective is not influenced by the need to maintain any form of industry credibility in being as close to 100% accurate about how the Oscar voters will vote. I was told long ago that my selections were too emotional to be a real player in the prediction game. I agree to a point, but then my argument is that the well-known Oscar journalists and prognosticators are emotional about their selections too... or, OR, they are influenced by their association with the actual voters in the business which helps them have a higher batting average in their predictions.

 Even with a pandemic that closed 80% of the theaters in the country, there were a lot of very good films released on streaming and VOD that are in contention. I thought it was going to be a dull year, and I even thought it might be best for the Oscars to postpone the awards season. But instead, they pushed it back by a whole two months to give time for films to play in some theaters as movie houses began to slowly open up again late last year. Of all the Oscar-nominated films, I only saw two in the theater: Promising Young Woman, and The Father. Coincidentally, those are the two films I'm really rooting for too. So, here are my predictions in select categories:

Anthony Hopkins in The Father

Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins, The Father. Due to the sad and untimely death of Chadwick Boseman, he has a lot of sentimental love to honor him for his wonderful performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Anthony was devastatingly brilliant as an elderly gentleman slowly losing his memory due to dementia. Hopkins won the BAFTA, and in the past seven years, the actor who won the BAFTA for Actor, won the Oscar. I'm feeling 90% sure of this win.

Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman. I drove to Tempe, AZ on Christmas day to spend the weekend in a city that had open theaters. I was floored by the script of PYW, and I loved Carey's performance as a troubled woman obsessed with avenging her friend who was gang-raped and later killed herself. This story really connected with me, and Carey's multi-layered performance has won accolades in the critics' circles and she won the Critics' Choice Award. If Carey wins the Indie Spirit Award later this week (Update 4.22.21: Carey won the Spirit Award!!!), this strengthens her chances to win the Oscar. But the industry loves Nomadland and I can see them giving Frances McDormand her 3rd Best Actress Oscar. I'm emotional for this category, and I believe Carey deserves to win, but male voters may be turned off by this film, which would be typical. Carey's chances to win are about 60%.

Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, hands down will easily win for Judas and the Black Messiah. I watched this film and was really moved by how Briton Daniel brought the life of Fred Hampton to the masses. This is an important story about the chairman of the Black Panthers that most people sadly are not familiar with. Daniel will win with 100% certainty. If Carey wins along with Anthony, three British people will win the top acting awards.

Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari. The perfect supporting actress performance in years. This is not the usual category fraud shenanighans, Yuh-Jung is a straight-up supporting role that is the life of this wonderful film. She's a scene-stealer without trying too hard, and she's just a lovely and funny character. Youn will be the first Korean actor to win an Oscar, and it's a well-deserved honor. She will win with 100% certainty. (Note: I feel terrible for Glenn Close in being nominated for the 8th time only to lose to a first-time nominee in a Supporting category. It's really cruel. She should never have been nominated for Hillbilly Elegy, even if it's just out of respect.)

The other primary categories:

Best Film: Nomadland

Best Director: Chloé Zhao

Adapted Screenplay: The Father

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman (threat: Trial of the Chicago 7)

It'll be very interesting to see the Oscars this Sunday night. The British will host the British/European nominees in London due to Covid-19, and only the nominees will be allowed into the venues for the show. Well, let's just hope that by next March, the Oscars will be back to hosting their regular program.